Paul Schloesser
Associate Editor
Eli Lilly has been pushing forward on its plans to expand tirzepatide into a megablockbuster, and while the Big Pharma is touting an increase in sales compared to previous quarters, it is trimming down its year-end guidance.
The Big Pharma reported $6.94 billion in Q3 revenue, better than expected compared to the $6.49 billion reported last quarter and the $6.7 billion Lilly reported in Q3 last year. Part of that is thanks to higher than expected sales of Mounjaro (tirzepatide), Lilly’s type 2 diabetes drug that was just approved by the FDA earlier this year.
Seeking a come-from-behind win, Eli Lilly lands big approval for next-gen diabetes drug
Tirzepatide has been introduced as a key part of Lilly’s expansion plans, and CEO David Ricks added more info to that front Tuesday morning. After the FDA approved Mounjaro, the drug got approved in Japan and the EU. In the meantime, a chronic weight management indication has been given fast-track designation.
Anat Ashkenazi
Ricks told investors and analysts that assuming positive results with tirzepatide in chronic weight loss, a rolling submission to the FDA, begun by the Big Pharma just last month, will be completed by mid-2023. In the meantime, CFO Anat Ashkenazi said that there has been extremely high demand — “unprecedented,” in her words — for the drug, announcing plans to double Lilly’s manufacturing capacity by the end of 2023.
If the submission is granted and Lilly enters the weight loss arena, it will stand against Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, branded as Wegovy for chronic weight loss.
Eli Lilly hits the gas on tirzepatide in obesity, nabs rolling submission for potential blockbuster indication
Analysts concurred that tirzepatide revenue went above consensus alongside Lilly’s Q3 numbers, and that tirzepatide numbers very well could go higher. Here’s Steve Scala with Cowen:
LLY beat Q3 estimates for revenue and met our EPS forecast but beat consensus. Q3 Mounjaro revenue beat expectations due in large part to one-time rights sale in Japan.
SVB Securities analysts were more specific on how Mounjaro went above consensus, even though Lilly lowered its year-end guidance.
Global Mounjaro sales of $187mm were more than double cons’ $82mm. US Mounjaro sales of $97mm were 26% above cons’ $77mm, but below the framework we published yesterday (range $115-150mm..).
“We still see upside to our Mounjaro 2023E sales of $1.6bn and longer-term projections,” SVB Securities added.
On the earnings call Tuesday morning, Lilly execs briefly discussed the impact of inflation on the megapharma’s revenue numbers, alongside lower sales of Olumiant.
“The impact of lower realized prices and increased expenses due to inflation and logistics costs were offset by favorable product mix, including the impact of lower sales of Olumiant for the treatment of COVID-19 and the favorable impact of foreign exchange rates,” Ashkenazi said.
She added that Lilly will be spending a significant amount on salary increases that are, at the very least, “partially due to inflation pressures.”
Separately on the inflation front, Lilly blamed President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act earlier Tuesday for causing the pharma to withdraw a Phase I blood cancer drug — a BCL2 inhibitor — it had in-licensed from Fosun Pharma. A Lilly spokesperson told Endpoints News that “in light of the Inflation Reduction Act, this program no longer met our threshold for continued investment.”
Leave a Reply